Monash University researchers have developed a lithium-sulphur battery that can power a smartphone for 5 days, outperforming lithium-ion. The researchers have fabricated this battery, have patents and the interest of manufacturers. The group has funding for further research in 2020, saying that continued research into cars and grid use will continue. Clouds could have a greater cooling effect on the planet than climate models currently suggest, according to new research. Max Roser (2023) - “AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future?” Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines' [Online Resource]

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There is no consensus, and the uncertainty is high. There is huge disagreement between experts about when human-level AI will be developed. Some believe that it is decades away, while others think it is probable that such systems will be developed within the next few years or months.There is not just disagreement between experts; individual experts also emphasize the large uncertainty around their own individual estimate. As always when the uncertainty is high, it is important to stress that it cuts both ways. It might be very long until we see human-level AI, but it also means that we might have little time to prepare. But astronomers think they are getting close to pinpointing what the Hubble Constant is and which of the measurements is correct. The timelines of the Metaculus community have become much shorter recently. The expected timelines have shortened by about a decade in the spring of 2022, when several impressive AI breakthroughs happened faster than many had anticipated. 11 The forecast by Ajeya CotraLabCorp, a clinical laboratory organization, has teamed up wit Zhang et al. was completed mainly between 16 September and 13 October 2019; but due to an error some experts completed the survey between 10-14 March 2020.

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The top map shows the warm-rain fraction in the present-day climate, where red indicates a high fraction and blue a low fraction. The bottom map shows how the warm-rain fraction could change in a 4C warmer future, relative to the present-day climate, where red indicates an increase in warm-rain fraction, and blue indicates a decrease. Warm-rain fraction in the present-day climate (top) and increase in the warm-rain fraction in a 4C warmer climate (bottom). Source: Mülmenstädt et al (2021) In 1994, Miguel Alcubierre, a Mexican theoretical physicist, showed that compressing spacetime in front of the spaceship while expanding it behind was mathematically possible within the laws of General Relativity. So, what does that mean? Imagine the distance between two points is 10 meters (33 feet). If you are standing at point A and can travel one meter per second, it would take 10 seconds to get to point B. However, let’s say you could somehow compress the space between you and point B so that the interval is now just one meter. Then, moving through spacetime at your maximum speed of one meter per second, you would be able to reach point B in about one second. In theory, this approach does not contradict the laws of relativity since you are not moving faster than light in the space around you. Alcubierre showed that the warp drive from “Star Trek” was in fact theoretically possible. The tactical (and strategic) leaders who embrace the character of incentive aligners will be much more effective than those who rely on traditional discipline." Artificial intelligence (AI) that surpasses our own intelligence sounds like the stuff from science-fiction books or films. What do experts in the field of AI research think about such scenarios? Do they dismiss these ideas as fantasy, or are they taking such prospects seriously?

It's a measure of how fast the universe is expanding at the current time," says Wendy Freedman, an astrophysicist at the University of Chicago who has spent her career measuring it. "The Hubble Constant sets the scale of the Universe, both its size and its age." Let's start by saying the Universe is big. When we look in any direction, the furthest visible regions of the Universe are estimated to be around 46 billion light years away. That's a diameter of 540 sextillion (or 54 followed by 22 zeros) miles. But this is really just our best guess – nobody knows exactly how big the Universe really is. What if a starship could compress space in front of it while expanding spacetime behind it? “Star Trek” took this idea and named it the warp drive.

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My graduate program was a fantastic experience where I got to overcome my limitations and learned to focus on my ambitions. The program not only expanded my knowledge horizon but also had an equally great impact on developing my personality and character. By using lasers to burn electrode patterns into sheets of plastic manufacturing costs and effort drop massively. The result is a battery that can charge 50 times faster than current batteries and discharge even slower than current supercapacitors. They're even tough, able to work after being bent over 10,000 times in testing. Other surveys of AI experts come to similar conclusions. In the following visualization, I have added the timelines from two earlier surveys conducted in 2018 and 2019. It is helpful to look at different surveys, as they differ in how they asked the question and how they defined human-level AI. You can find more details about these studies at the end of this text.Those in the fixed-probability framing were asked, “How many years until you expect: A 10% probability of HLMI existing? A 50% probability of HLMI existing? A 90% probability of HLMI existing?” They responded by giving a number of years from the day they took the survey. The full automation of labor group was asked: “Say an occupation becomes fully automatable when unaided machines can accomplish it better and more cheaply than human workers. Ignore aspects of occupations for which being a human is intrinsically advantageous, e.g., being accepted as a jury member. Think feasibility, not adoption. Say we have reached ‘full automation of labor’ when all occupations are fully automatable. That is, when for any occupation, machines could be built to carry out the task better and more cheaply than human workers.” This question was asked under both the fixed-probability and fixed-years framings. The study by Zhang et al. published in 2022 The Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipates that overall employment in the U.S. will grow from “153.5 ... [+] million to 165.4 million over the 2020–30 decade, an increase of 11.9 million jobs.” getty Faster Future has highlighted how improvements in these areas will affect the Future of Leadership and Strategy, which is illustrated in a three-phase framework. It is important to note that the definitions of the AI systems in question differ very much across these various studies. For example, the system that Cotra speaks about would have a much more transformative impact on the world than the system that the Metaculus forecasters focus on. More details can be found in the appendix and within the respective studies. What can we learn from the forecasts?